Forecasting of the milk industry (V curve)

Nepal is an agriculture-based country. Around 60-65 % of people depend on agriculture here. Agriculture contributes highly to Total GDP of the nation i.e. Agriculture 31.7% also livestock 13 % and dairy industry contribute 9 % to total GDP.

As the world is currently facing the pandemic coronavirus outbreak most of the country including Nepal is undergoing complete lockdown. This has lead many businesses to suffer and a huge down in the economy. Agriculture has also not been able to escape from this.

The so-called major contributor to nations' GDP i.e. Agriculture is falling apart because of this lockdown. The vegetables, fruits and raw milk which are supposed to be the people's daily requirements are not being able to reach their consumers and hence being dumped as waste losing so-called nations GDP and surely the nation’s economy has to suffer. Not only the nation’s economy but also people associated with it like farmers and industries have also suffered.

Though this situation demands a life over the economic stability of any nation these agriculture produces availability in the market is as essential as the assets to fight this deadly virus.

Food should not be the cause of over coronavirus to take most life worldwide. Also, this helps in maintaining the GDP of the nation. To maintain the GDP the economy curve should be the v curve. For this government with collaboration with industries must do forecasting and have to come with proper planning for upcoming days.

Many developing countries including Nepal are dumping the raw milk in the absence of market due to this pandemic corona lockdown. Since the majority of its supply was sent to the hotels, restaurants, hostels, schools and many more.

As all the shops are closed so the demand for milk is less in the market because of this many farmers are affected. They are not getting their actual price. Also, many milk co-operatives or milk collecting centers are bearing heavy losses in this field. So to recover from this issue Nepal government, as well as industries, should take proper actions.

Several methods can be taken to cope with this situation. Food preservation and availability are the prime targets that need to be set.

For this many modern technologies can be adapted like enhancing the shelf life of the product through either advanced packing or by converting the raw materials into a variety of products like incase of milk into Ghee, butter, paneer, yogurt, cheese, ice cream, condensed milk, milk powder, etc. With the conversion of milk to its product, the shelf life of its product can be prolonged from 48 hrs to several years.

Cheese has the highest shelf life among these i.e. over several years. (cheddar, mozzarella, cottage swiss, Kanchan cheese(Nepal) ). And through exchanging packaging i.e. by UHT treatment followed by aseptic packaging normal milk shelf life can be enhanced to about six months.

Nepal is famous for yak cheese production(hilly or Himalaya region). There are many dairy industries like DDC ( dairy development corporation), Sujal Dairy Pvt. Ltd., Sita ram dairy, Nepal dairy (nd’s), Himalayan dairy and much more big and small dairy plant.

They all should take forecasting about the dairy product and take action at a proper time. There are two big milk powder plants in Nepal one in Biratnagar under DDC and another one in Pokhara(sujal).

They have to use this time and make the stock for the future they have to utilize the product and maintain the GDP growth of Nepal. The technical person and industrial person should also collaborate to take over these problems take a necessary decision at the proper time and make the GDP and economic growth in V shape not in a U shape.

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Writer: Bipin Nayak (M.Tech (Food and dairy), final year student of SRM University, Chennai, India):Niraj Singh (M.Tech (Food and dairy), final year student of SRM University, Chennai, India)